Roll Randomizer issues?

[Lethann]

Has anyone else noticed since the end of August that player rolls seem abnormally low, with a VERY high rate of crit fails, while DM rolls are very high with an increased rate of crit successes?

Honestly I thought this was just normal "bad nights" but I've had 4 games in a row, both DND 5e and SWADE, where this is the norm. Tonight we had something like 6 crit fails for the players. Seriously this is feeling very abnormal and when talking to some other FGU users at Dragon Con they were talking about the same thing happening in their games. We're talking about players having an average of below 7 for their rolls.

Summary: Rolls seem to be low for players while high for DMs

Ruleset(s): DND5e & SWADE

New Campaign / FGC Migrated Campaign: Both

[LordEntrails]

Are you familiar with Confirmation Bias?

Every now and then someone thinks that the dice are not random, but every time any one runs a statistical analysis the distributions are fine. Each campaign has a chatlog.html. You can parse that file and run your own analysis to see if what you think is happening is. 99.99% sure it's not.

[lostsanityreturned]

I have one player who up until the last two sessions had 6 sessions worth of barely ever rolling above 10 and sitting around 4-5 with every roll except for when he would attempt rolls with the third level of MAP in which case he would roll ~15-18.

I have another player in the same game who has super luck and she frequently rolls 6-8 crits a session easily and has done so for the last 6 months of play.

Everyone else has normal odds distributions.

Luck is fickle, someone could open fantasygrounds and only ever roll 1's and it wouldn't be inherrent proof of a broken system as statistically it is possible, just super duper, past lottery levels unlikely.

I have a guy at in in person group who has similar luck to the low roller I mentioned before btw, if the roll matters he is almost certain to fail it.

Not to say that bugs can't exist, but I haven't noticed it in PF2e or 5e in FG.

[Jiminimonka]

Played a session last night (the Hobgoblin Fort one in Battlemaps Reincarnated) and one of my players walked into the open and got attacked by every single hobgoblin (about 12 or 15) and every attack missed. The hobgoblin boss with 3 attacks missed all 3. The wizard (pc) fireballed and every hobgoblin failed. One survived. The hobgoblins missed almost every attack. And so did the players (mostly).......a

[cevikd]

I parsed the chatlog of my game, we're up to 22 weekly sessions in FGU, for all of the d20 rolls (that was the easiest to parse) and the distribution of rolls looks pretty much as you'd expect:

d20: total: 4236 avg: 10.66 1's: 217 [%5.1] 20's: 226 [%5.3] (expected %5.00)

On a 20 sided die, you'd expect any given number to show up 5% of the time. You can see we've had about 5% of 1's and 20's. You'd expect the average of a d20 roll to be 10.5 (because (1 + 20) / 2 = 10.5) and we're at 10.66.

[RevenantBob]

Thinking the dice are bugged is normal since we like to attribute strange behavior like rolls to an outside influence instead of chance. To me the idea someone can have nights of terrible rolls or amazing ones a good reason to be rolling. If people didn't get those I would hate to bother rolling dice since the game would just feel like Take-10 mania.