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April 23rd, 2021, 07:24 #1
- Join Date
- Dec 2017
- Posts
- 20
roll 20 after rolled a 1, and vice versa
Hi,
On FGU, with strafinder, very often, when a player roll a natural 1, the next roll will be 20, and the reverse is happening too. Do you have the same experience ?
it happens very often !
Thanks for sharing your experience !
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April 23rd, 2021, 11:30 #2
I don't feel this happens unusually often. Also, I'm pretty sure, the way the rolling mechanism functions there is no way of one roll influencing another roll. Must be eigther terribly lucky or just perceptive illusion on your/your players side.
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April 23rd, 2021, 14:36 #3
You can ask your GM for a copy of the chat log and you can review it to get a more accurate picture of whether this is happening more often than you might expect.
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April 23rd, 2021, 17:50 #4
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
- Location
- California
- Posts
- 1,564
My thinking on this sort of thing is you are more likely to notice a 20, 20 or a 01, 20 over a regular random roll. So psychologically you remember them more and discount the others so it seems like that happens more often. Experiments which yield true results would probably require you run 100,000 pairs recording each then generate a percentage for each type of pairing. The more numbers you generate the more likely the percentages will likely be closer. 5 or 10 rolls aren't a good sample.
On the other side, computerized random numbers are less random than tabletop dice because computers aren't at all random.
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April 24th, 2021, 00:22 #5
weissrolf has done lots of analysis on the rolls which shows they are not perfect when run over large numbers of rolls. Ive done similar numbers of rolls, but with only very superficial analysis, and on sample sizes of up to 2000 dice they are pretty close. On bigger samples - 10,000 and 100,000 and 1,000,000 the anomalies get larger but I cant see them having any impact on the game.
That is not to say that a software glitch might not occur during play that causes an anomalous set of rolls, but more likely its a combination of chance and perception.
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