PDA

View Full Version : Stupidest request ever? How to prove FGU dice are "fair"?



drakir
August 28th, 2021, 05:16
So my players are ridiculously superstitious, and bizarrely sure that adding tech to games is going to be done "wrong". We got into FG because we needed to play after months apart. However, they're exhibiting what to me seems to be classic confirmation bias behaviour:
1) "The dice roller rolls way too many 1s to be really providing an honest roll!"
2) "Whenever the die teeters between two numbers before settling, it always comes down on the lower number!"
Can someone confirm, as I believe, that the system is a physics based roller using perfectly weighted isometric solids? Further, they've accused it of "always starting with the same number up" and "always applying identical force and direction to the dice".
I'm sure they'll be willing to claim there's even more hidden bias against them in the code, so a second ask:
Is there an extension that will log all die rolls? I just need something I can run through some excel number crunching and prove that the d20 is coming out to 10.5, the d4 is coming out to 2.5, and that I didn't choose this system because the dice roller is inherently biased against the players.
Sorry if this is so ridiculous it makes your eyes roll. These are engineers, bankers and lawyers. You'd figure they'd understand how confirmation bias works.

damned
August 28th, 2021, 05:36
There are a bunch of threads from last year.
You can read them for yourself and make your own mind up.

There is fairly strong evidence that there are some inconsistencies that occur over sufficiently large numbers of rolls but conversely the evidence similarly suggests that over the number of rolls that occur in an entire campaign these results are very close to fair.

If you want to do your own testing - or you want your players to then see MoreCore

In MoreCore use the following in chat

/rngroll d#x#

eg
/rngroll d6x1000

and it will roll the specified number of dice in sets of 50 and track both the number of times each result is displayed and the actual results in order.
on rolls of less than 2,000 no reproducible anomalies seem to occur in frequency or repetition of results but in sets of 10,000 to 100,000 (dont use more than 100,000 if you want to view the individual dice results as they cut off around 160,000 from memory, but the % stats will still track accurately) it tends to some more predictable weighting variations eg a 2 might be 12% more likely than a 16 (example)

There is a script that has been written somewhere that will parse your campaigns db.xml and produce some stats

Below are the results of 10,000 d6s thrown just now while typing.

damned
August 28th, 2021, 05:37
#1 Rolled: 1652 Occurrence: 16%
#2 Rolled: 1741 Occurrence: 17%
#3 Rolled: 1705 Occurrence: 17%
#4 Rolled: 1667 Occurrence: 16%
#5 Rolled: 1629 Occurrence: 16%
#6 Rolled: 1606 Occurrence: 16%
Total Number of Rolls: 10000
Sum of all Rolls: 34698
Average of all Rolls: 3.4698
Actual Rolls in Order:
5, 5, 4, 2, 5, 5, 5, 6, 3, 1, 5, 2, 2, 3, 2, 6, 3, 3, 5, 3, 5, 1, 6, 2, 5, 5, 1, 5, 6, 3, 5, 3, 6, 4, 6, 4, 1, 4, 6, 5, 5, 4, 6, 4, 4, 4, 5, 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 6, 1, 5, 5, 3, 4, 4, 6, 3, 3, 1, 3, 1, 5, 3, 4, 6, 6, 4, 5, 5, 3, 2, 4, 6, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 4, 6, 2, 2, 1, 4, 6, 3, 2, 5, 1, 6, 1, 2, 5, 3, 6, 3, 1, 2, 2, 5, 2, 5, 3, 5, 5, 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 5, 2, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1, 2, 6, 1, 6, 6, 6, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 5, 6, 6, 5, 4, 4, 1, 4, 1, 3, 3, 6, 1, 2, 6, 4, 5, 2, 6, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 5, 1, 3, 3, 6, 6, 1, 2, 5, 2, 1, 1, 3, 2, 6, 4, 5, 6, 1, 2, 3, 5, 3, 5, 6, 3, 4, 3, 3, 1, 2, 6, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 4, 6, 4, 6, 6, 6, 5, 2, 2, 5, 5, 1, 5, 6, 5, 4, 4, 3, 1, 2, 1, 5, 2, 2, 1, 5, 6, 5, 5, 1, 5, 2, 2, 1, 2, 4, 1, 4, 4, 6, 4, 2, 5, 4, 1, 3, 1, 3, 5, 6, 3, 5, 2, 4, 2, 2, 3, 5, 6, 1, 2, 4, 4, 2, 6, 4, 3, 5, 3, 6, 6, 1, 3, 4, 4, 3, 1, 1, 3, 5, 2, 6, 6, 5, 1, 5, 2, 1, 1, 3, 5, 4, 5, 3, 5, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 5, 3, 2, 1, 3, 1, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 1, 6, 1, 3, 2, 4, 2, 5, 5, 3, 5, 1, 3, 2, 5, 5, 4, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 5, 6, 5, 5, 5, 4, 2, 6, 5, 2, 1, 2, 3, 1, 4, 1, 2, 5, 1, 5, 2, 1, 3, 4, 2, 4, 1, 3, 2, 3, 6, 3, 5, 6, 2, 5, 6, 2, 2, 3, 5, 1, 2, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 4, 4, 2, 6, 3, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 5, 2, 3, 2, 4, 5, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 1, 1, 2, 5, 6, 2, 5, 2, 4, 5, 2, 3, 3, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5, 2, 5, 2, 6, 6, 3, 2, 6, 2, 1, 3, 1, 6, 2, 4, 3, 2, 3, 6, 2, 6, 6, 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2, 2, 3, 5, 3, 6, 4, 3, 6, 2, 1, 3, 5, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 3, 2, 5, 2, 6, 6, 3, 4, 1, 4, 6, 1, 4, 1, 6, 1, 6, 5, 4, 4, 2, 5, 2, 4, 2, 1, 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 5, 5, 1, 2, 6, 2, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1, 6, 6, 4, 5, 1, 6, 4, 5, 4, 3, 4, 1, 1, 6, 6, 3, 2, 2, 2, 3, 6, 3, 6, 1, 1, 5, 1, 6, 1, 5, 3, 4, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 5, 2, 4, 5, 3, 3, 4, 2, 6, 3, 6, 2, 1, 6, 3, 4, 5, 4, 1, 6, 3, 2, 1, 1, 4, 6, 2, 3, 5, 4, 6, 5, 4, 2, 6, 4, 2, 5, 2, 4, 2, 1, 3, 1, 4, 5, 2, 2, 4, 4, 2, 5, 4, 4, 1, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 6, 5, 1, 1, 3, 4, 3, 1, 4, 1, 5, 6, 6, 2, 3, 4, 5, 2, 6, 2, 2, 2, 6, 2, 3, 1, 6, 3, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4, 1, 5, 4, 6, 1, 4, 3, 1, 1, 3, 4, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 2, 4, 6, 4, 1, 5, 1, 3, 5, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 5, 5, 6, 3, 1, 3, 2, 3, 2, 5, 6, 1, 2, 6, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 6, 1, 1, 5, 1, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 3, 6, 3, 5, 5, 5, 6, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, 6, 5, 3, 3, 3, 6, 1, 2, 6, 1, 4, 4, 4, 1, 4, 2, 5, 1, 2, 2, 4, 2, 4, 5, 2, 6, 2, 5, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 5, 6, 4, 3, 4, 6, 2, 4, 6, 1, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 2, 5, 6, 5, 2, 1, 5, 1, 6, 4, 5, 4, 2, 3, 3, 2, 1, 5, 1, 2, 2, 6, 6, 4, 6, 4, 2, 6, 4, 2, 2, 2, 4, 5, 3, 2, 2, 3, 2, 5, 5, 4, 5, 2, 4, 6, 1, 5, 6, 5, 6, 4, 6, 2, 3, 4, 3, 5, 5, 1, 2, 6, 5, 2, 4, 6, 1, 1, 4, 4, 1, 1, 2, 2, 6, 5, 3, 3, 1, 1, 5, 5, 5, 2, 6, 5, 1, 5, 6, 1, 1, 5, 2, 6, 4, 4, 5, 1, 4, 3, 5, 3, 5, 2, 2, 5, 3, 5, 5, 1, 4, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5, 2, 2, 4, 3, 5, 6, 3, 6, 5, 2, 4, 6, 3, 2, 1, 5, 5, 1, 6, 1, 5, 5, 3, 5, 2, 1, 5, 6, 5, 4, 1, 6, 1, 6, 6, 2, 1, 5, 6, 1, 1, 4, 5, 6, 6, 2, 5, 2, 3, 4, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, 4, 3, 2, 3, 2, 1, 6, 4, 4, 1, 3, 5, 2, 2, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2, 1, 5, 2, 2, 1, 5, 5, 6, 3, 6, 1, 4, 4, 5, 1, 4, 1, 3, 4, 6, 1, 5, 2, 1, 6, 2, 3, 5, 5, 1, 5, 6, 4, 1, 6, 6, 1, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 5, 6, 1, 4, 6, 1, 5, 4, 6, 4, 5, 4, 2, 3, 4, 6, 6, 5, 6, 4, 6, 3, 5, 1, 6, 2, 2, 4, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 2, 3, 1, 5, 4, 3, 6, 1, 6, 2, 6, 4, 1, 4, 3, 6, 3, 5, 2, 6, 2, 5, 3, 5, 5, 1, 4, 5, 4, 6, 2, 6, 4, 3, 4, 1, 1, 6, 5, 1, 6, 5, 1, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 6, 3, 1, 5, 5, 5, 1, 1, 4, 2, 1, 2, 2, 4, 5, 1, 5, 3, 6, 4, 3, 5, 4, 6, 1, 5, 3, 5, 1, 6, 2, 2, 3, 6, 3, 6, 5, 2, 1, 5, 2, 2, 5, 3, 5, 3, 5, 6, 3, 4, 3, 5, 5, 2, 6, 1, 1, 4, 5, 5, 4, 5, 3, 6, 6, 1, 6, 3, 2, 4, 4, 4, 6, 6, 3, 1, 6, 1, 5, 5, 1, 6, 1, 3, 1, 5, 4, 5, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 3, 1, 6, 3, 5, 6, 5, 6, 3, 4, 6, 5, 1, 4, 4, 1, 2, 3, 5, 5, 6, 5, 5, 2, 1, 5, 5, 1, 4, 6, 5, 3, 4, 1, 4, 3, 4, 3, 1, 2, 2, 6, 5, 1, 6, 2, 4, 6, 5, 3, 1, 2, 1, 5, 2, 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 1, 3, 6, 1, 4, 1, 4, 3, 5, 3, 2, 2, 1, 6, 2, 4, 1, 1, 4, 6, 5, 6, 2, 4, 1, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 6, 1, 4, 3, 3, 2, 5, 6, 1, 4, 2, 3, 3, 5, 6, 4, 2, 4, 2, 6, 5, 4, 1, 1, 5, 5, 6, 3, 2, 3, 3, 2, 1, 2, 4, 1, 6, 5, 3, 6, 1, 6, 2, 3, 3, 2, 4, 5, 3, 5, 5, 6, 3, 1, 2, 5, 1, 6, 1, 4, 3, 6, 2, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 4, 1, 1, 3, 6, 4, 6, 5, 4, 3, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 4, 3, 6, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, 6, 4, 6, 5, 2, 6, 6, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2, 5, 5, 2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 2, 6, 2, 3, 5, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 6, 1, 3, 6, 1, 5, 2, 3, 3, 5, 2, 3, 1, 4, 1, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 3, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 6, 3, 4, 3, 6, 1, 1, 5, 5, 5, 5, 2, 4, 2, 6, 2, 6, 6, 4, 6, 3, 2, 3, 3, 1, 1, 5, 2, 3, 2, 1, 4, 4, 4, 5, 4, 4, 4, 1, 6, 4, 4, 2, 6, 2, 1, 3, 5, 3, 1, 6, 5, 3, 3, 6, 6, 2, 3, 3, 3, 5, 4, 6, 3, 5, 3, 4, 6, 4, 6, 1, 6, 2, 6, 5, 5, 2, 5, 4, 1, 3, 6, 3, 4, 4, 1, 4, 2, 6, 1, 2, 2, 4, 1, 6, 2, 6, 3, 3, 1, 2, 1, 6, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 2, 6, 5, 6, 5, 1, 3, 2, 1, 6, 4, 1, 6, 4, 6, 4, 6, 3, 4, 1, 6, 3, 3, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6, 6, 6, 4, 2, 6, 1, 5, 6, 3, 5, 2, 3, 2, 5, 4, 1, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 4, 2, 1, 6, 2, 5, 6, 3, 6, 2, 4, 6, 4, 3, 5, 1, 5, 1, 1, 5, 5, 2, 6, 2, 2, 4, 2, 4, 6, 1, 5, 2, 3, 4, 2, 4, 6, 1, 5, 6, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2, 4, 6, 4, 6, 4, 6, 3, 5, 6, 3, 3, 3, 6, 1, 2, 1, 4, 5, 2, 4, 3, 5, 2, 4, 4, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 3, 1, 6, 3, 3, 4, 2, 6, 2, 6, 1, 6, 3, 4, 3, 6, 4, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 3, 1, 1, 2, 5, 2, 4, 2, 1, 6, 5, 1, 6, 5, 6, 3, 4, 2, 6, 3, 6, 1, 2, 4, 1, 5, 1, 4, 5, 6, 2, 5, 1, 6, 2, 6, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 5, 4, 5, 2, 5, 1, 6, 2, 4, 4, 6, 6, 3, 3, 5, 6, 4, 3, 4, 2, 6, 3, 5,

damned
August 28th, 2021, 05:37
5, 2, 5, 4, 2, 5, 6, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 6, 3, 6, 5, 5, 6, 2, 6, 2, 4, 3, 3, 3, 5, 3, 5, 4, 1, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, 2, 6, 4, 3, 4, 3, 6, 1, 4, 6, 6, 2, 5, 3, 1, 4, 6, 3, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 2, 4, 5, 4, 1, 4, 4, 4, 6, 6, 2, 3, 4, 4, 2, 6, 6, 2, 5, 3, 4, 5, 4, 5, 2, 3, 2, 5, 3, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 6, 1, 1, 1, 6, 2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 3, 1, 2, 2, 5, 5, 6, 1, 5, 5, 5, 2, 5, 1, 3, 1, 1, 3, 2, 4, 6, 2, 3, 6, 2, 5, 1, 5, 2, 5, 6, 5, 4, 2, 5, 2, 2, 2, 5, 1, 3, 5, 3, 6, 4, 6, 3, 2, 3, 1, 4, 3, 2, 1, 3, 2, 4, 5, 5, 4, 4, 4, 6, 4, 5, 3, 2, 5, 5, 2, 4, 6, 3, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 5, 1, 3, 4, 2, 3, 2, 4, 6, 6, 3, 6, 1, 5, 2, 3, 6, 6, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 3, 5, 4, 1, 5, 2, 2, 6, 4, 2, 1, 3, 4, 1, 1, 5, 3, 6, 4, 3, 6, 1, 6, 4, 5, 2, 6, 5, 1, 6, 4, 4, 6, 3, 6, 3, 5, 2, 1, 3, 5, 5, 4, 1, 1, 3, 6, 4, 6, 1, 6, 4, 1, 6, 6, 1, 4, 1, 1, 4, 5, 3, 6, 6, 2, 5, 1, 5, 2, 2, 6, 6, 6, 6, 1, 6, 2, 3, 3, 2, 6, 1, 3, 6, 1, 5, 6, 5, 6, 1, 3, 2, 3, 4, 6, 3, 4, 3, 4, 1, 6, 5, 5, 6, 3, 1, 1, 6, 1, 5, 1, 5, 3, 1, 5, 1, 6, 3, 3, 5, 4, 6, 6, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 6, 4, 2, 2, 3, 4, 1, 6, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 5, 6, 6, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 1, 3, 5, 6, 1, 2, 3, 5, 1, 4, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 5, 2, 5, 1, 4, 4, 6, 5, 6, 1, 2, 4, 6, 1, 4, 6, 6, 6, 4, 2, 3, 5, 5, 6, 5, 4, 5, 5, 2, 2, 6, 5, 5, 6, 1, 2, 4, 4, 1, 1, 6, 3, 2, 5, 2, 4, 2, 5, 3, 4, 5, 5, 4, 1, 4, 3, 5, 6, 5, 2, 1, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, 5, 2, 1, 2, 3, 1, 4, 2, 2, 3, 6, 2, 3, 5, 1, 2, 2, 1, 6, 2, 3, 5, 1, 6, 2, 5, 6, 5, 1, 5, 1, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2, 1, 1, 6, 1, 6, 3, 6, 4, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 3, 4, 1, 3, 4, 4, 6, 2, 3, 1, 6, 3, 6, 5, 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 6, 4, 2, 1, 6, 1, 3, 3, 6, 2, 5, 6, 5, 3, 2, 1, 1, 3, 6, 4, 5, 6, 6, 1, 1, 5, 5, 5, 1, 2, 1, 6, 3, 2, 2, 6, 6, 6, 6, 2, 1, 5, 4, 5, 6, 6, 2, 4, 4, 1, 2, 6, 4, 6, 1, 1, 5, 1, 1, 5, 5, 2, 5, 5, 1, 3, 4, 6, 1, 2, 3, 1, 5, 5, 6, 5, 1, 2, 5, 6, 1, 6, 4, 3, 5, 6, 2, 6, 3, 2, 6, 1, 5, 6, 2, 3, 4, 2, 2, 5, 1, 2, 2, 4, 1, 3, 2, 5, 6, 1, 4, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 5, 5, 5, 2, 4, 6, 6, 4, 3, 2, 2, 4, 6, 3, 4, 3, 2, 1, 4, 5, 6, 6, 4, 5, 4, 1, 2, 6, 2, 5, 2, 2, 4, 3, 5, 5, 6, 6, 2, 2, 4, 2, 4, 5, 4, 6, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 3, 4, 6, 2, 6, 6, 2, 3, 5, 5, 1, 3, 2, 4, 4, 4, 1, 1, 1, 2, 5, 6, 3, 6, 1, 2, 5, 6, 1, 2, 6, 4, 6, 1, 2, 4, 3, 5, 4, 4, 5, 3, 2, 2, 1, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 5, 6, 3, 5, 2, 3, 6, 3, 5, 6, 1, 2, 4, 6, 5, 2, 1, 4, 4, 1, 5, 1, 1, 4, 2, 5, 2, 3, 1, 2, 3, 4, 2, 1, 6, 1, 2, 3, 2, 3, 4, 6, 3, 6, 5, 6, 1, 6, 1, 5, 1, 4, 5, 5, 1, 4, 3, 5, 2, 6, 5, 3, 4, 6, 1, 4, 5, 2, 4, 2, 3, 3, 5, 4, 2, 1, 2, 4, 1, 1, 6, 2, 1, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 6, 6, 3, 5, 2, 1, 1, 6, 4, 3, 6, 1, 5, 2, 3, 3, 4, 2, 6, 4, 3, 5, 3, 6, 3, 4, 1, 3, 6, 1, 3, 4, 6, 6, 4, 1, 1, 6, 1, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 1, 1, 6, 6, 6, 3, 3, 1, 2, 4, 2, 6, 3, 1, 1, 4, 3, 1, 2, 1, 5, 2, 3, 2, 3, 3, 3, 5, 6, 1, 6, 2, 5, 1, 1, 3, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 3, 5, 1, 6, 3, 1, 6, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 2, 4, 5, 4, 3, 5, 4, 4, 4, 4, 1, 4, 5, 1, 3, 3, 3, 6, 1, 6, 3, 3, 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6, 1, 5, 4, 1, 3, 3, 5, 3, 5, 6, 3, 5, 6, 3, 4, 1, 5, 4, 1, 6, 5, 6, 6, 3, 6, 6, 2, 3, 5, 1, 2, 3, 1, 4, 6, 6, 2, 4, 1, 2, 6, 4, 5, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1, 6, 5, 1, 4, 4, 5, 6, 6, 3, 6, 3, 2, 1, 5, 1, 6, 3, 3, 3, 5, 4, 6, 3, 3, 4, 2, 5, 2, 1, 6, 3, 4, 4, 2, 5, 6, 1, 2, 1, 1, 3, 6, 4, 5, 1, 5, 3, 1, 4, 6, 5, 5, 4, 1, 2, 2, 3, 2, 6, 4, 4, 2, 6, 3, 4, 5, 2, 5, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3, 4, 5, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 6, 1, 4, 2, 2, 6, 6, 3, 1, 6, 1, 3, 1, 4, 1, 1, 2, 2, 5, 1, 4, 5, 3, 4, 6, 1, 5, 3, 4, 3, 2, 3, 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6, 4, 5, 4, 3, 1, 4, 4, 5, 1, 6, 4, 2, 3, 5, 2, 2, 1, 6, 5, 5, 5, 1, 6, 4, 2, 6, 6, 5, 6, 3, 1, 4, 1, 1, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 6, 2, 2, 2, 4, 6, 6, 4, 2, 6, 5, 3, 5, 2, 2, 2, 5, 3, 6, 1, 5, 1, 1, 5, 2, 6, 3, 3, 2, 1, 2, 5, 2, 4, 4, 2, 3, 1, 2, 5, 6, 5, 4, 1, 4, 6, 3, 3, 4, 2, 5, 4, 3, 3, 2, 3, 5, 1, 5, 5, 5, 3, 1, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 3, 6, 3, 5, 1, 4, 5, 3, 5, 1, 5, 2, 1, 2, 3, 1, 3, 4, 6, 2, 3, 2, 4, 4, 5, 3, 1, 5, 6, 4, 4, 1, 5, 3, 2, 2, 6, 6, 2, 5, 2, 2, 5, 5, 5, 1, 6, 5, 6, 2, 2, 4, 5, 1, 4, 2, 2, 6, 6, 1, 4, 2, 2, 4, 3, 1, 4, 3, 3, 2, 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 1, 2, 3, 2, 4, 4, 6, 5, 5, 2, 6, 1, 1, 2, 1, 6, 3, 5, 3, 5, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 5, 1, 2, 1, 4, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 5, 6, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4, 1, 4, 1, 1, 6, 1, 6, 2, 3, 4, 2, 4, 5, 5, 5, 4, 2, 6, 3, 5, 5, 2, 5, 2, 5, 1, 2, 4, 2, 6, 6, 1, 2, 1, 6, 6, 3, 5, 6, 4, 3, 6, 2, 4, 4, 4, 3, 6, 3, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 5, 5, 1, 1, 2, 4, 1, 3, 6, 6, 6, 5, 4, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1, 2, 1, 4, 3, 2, 6, 6, 4, 3, 3, 6, 5, 4, 6, 5, 4, 1, 4, 3, 2, 6, 6, 1, 1, 6, 5, 3, 6, 1, 6, 4, 6, 5, 3, 5, 4, 6, 4, 4, 2, 4, 6, 6, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2, 4, 2, 5, 3, 1, 1, 5, 5, 5, 5, 6, 3, 6, 5, 6, 2, 5, 2, 2, 6, 4, 1, 2, 4, 3, 1, 5, 4, 2, 4, 4, 4, 2, 2, 6, 3, 5, 2, 6, 1, 4, 5, 3, 4, 5, 4, 2, 2, 5, 5, 6, 4, 6, 3, 2, 1, 5, 3, 4, 1, 6, 1, 1, 2, 5, 5, 3, 4, 4, 6, 5, 6, 2, 3, 2, 3, 3, 6, 3, 1, 3, 1, 2, 6, 3, 3, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 2, 1, 5, 4, 6, 2, 2, 1, 6, 3, 6, 2, 1, 6, 2, 4, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 2, 5, 4, 5, 2, 2, 4, 5, 4, 4, 1, 4, 5, 3, 5, 3, 6, 4, 6, 3, 1, 4, 5, 4, 3, 4, 5, 6, 1, 5, 1, 4, 2, 3, 5, 3, 3, 6, 6, 6, 3, 6, 5, 5, 4, 3, 6, 2, 3, 1, 2, 5, 2, 1, 4, 3, 3, 1, 4, 5, 2, 5, 3, 4, 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 5, 3, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 1, 6, 5, 3, 1, 2, 2, 5, 3, 1, 2, 1, 2, 5, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 1, 5, 4, 5, 1, 3, 5, 5, 1, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 4, 4, 4, 5, 3, 3, 2, 4, 1, 2, 2, 3, 1, 1, 6, 4, 4, 5, 1, 2, 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 1, 5, 1, 5, 5, 6, 3, 2, 5, 4, 5, 2, 1, 1, 6, 1, 6, 6, 6, 4, 4, 4, 6, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 5, 6, 2, 6, 4, 6, 2, 4, 5, 1, 1, 5, 2, 3, 2, 5, 1, 4, 3, 1, 3, 1, 6, 4, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 4, 6, 3, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 2, 2, 6, 2, 3, 1, 5, 5, 6, 3, 1, 6, 5, 3, 6, 2, 5, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 2, 4, 1, 5, 1, 6, 3, 2, 4, 5, 4, 3, 3, 6, 1, 6, 6, 2, 2, 5, 2, 6, 2, 5, 6, 1, 1, 6, 4, 6, 6, 6, 4, 1, 4, 1, 3, 1, 3, 4, 4, 1, 4, 4, 1, 1, 1, 5, 3, 5, 1, 6, 6, 5, 2, 3, 1, 1, 4, 6, 5, 3, 1, 6, 1, 4, 4, 5, 1, 1, 2, 6, 2, 5, 4, 2, 1, 2, 4, 3, 6, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 1, 2, 5, 1, 3, 3, 6, 5, 1, 1, 3, 5, 4, 2, 2, 1, 5, 1, 6, 2, 2, 2, 3, 6, 5, 1, 1, 2, 4, 5, 2, 6, 2, 4, 5, 1, 3, 2, 5, 2, 1, 6, 6, 1, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, 6, 2, 4, 1, 6, 5, 3, 1, 4, 4, 3, 1, 2, 6, 5, 2, 2, 2, 4, 5, 1, 3, 3, 2, 3, 6, 5, 6, 1, 2, 3, 1, 4, 6, 3, 1, 6, 5, 2, 3, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 6, 2, 3, 4, 6, 5, 6, 6, 2, 2, 3, 2, 5, 2, 2, 2, 2, 5, 4, 6, 1, 1, 3, 4, 2, 4, 2, 5, 4, 1, 2, 1, 2, 5, 6, 3, 5, 2, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 5, 3, 3, 2, 3, 1, 4, 3, 3, 1, 2, 2, 4, 5, 1, 2, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, 6, 4, 1, 5, 3, 4, 4, 3, 1, 5, 5, 4, 1, 3, 3, 2, 5, 4, 3, 3, 2, 4, 4, 4, 1, 2, 1, 4, 2, 5, 5, 5, 2, 3, 3, 6, 1, 3, 4, 6, 4, 5, 5, 3, 4, 1, 6, 1, 5, 5, 4, 2, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 6, 2, 1, 6, 4, 5, 1, 6, 1, 2, 4, 1, 3, 3, 1, 5, 6, 4, 1, 4, 5, 5, 3, 5, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 3, 6, 3, 5, 6, 1, 2, 3, 5, 2, 5, 3, 1, 6, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 3, 5, 4, 1, 4, 2, 6, 6, 3, 4, 4, 3, 6, 1, 2, 4, 4, 6, 2, 4, 1, 2, 5, 6, 3, 4, 1, 1, 1, 6, 4, 1, 3, 6, 6, 3, 2, 3, 6, 5, 4, 4, 2, 4, 1, 2, 1, 5, 4, 5

damned
August 28th, 2021, 05:40
So the two main arguments are:

1. There is some reproducible anomalies in distribution over large enough data sets

vs

2. The anomalies are not reproducible in real world data sets

You will find some people will sit in one camp or the other. Eg - it matters or it has no effect.

Weissrolf
August 28th, 2021, 09:38
By itself FG Unity's 3D dice are not very random, but biased by the 3D rolling algorithm, which ironically was better in FG Classic. Last time I checked there was a period of 200 rolls when the same die is used, this may have changed with new versions (to some other period).

Here is an animated GIF demonstrating the periodicity. All you have to understand about this image is that true randomness is just noise (as in old tube TVs), there should be no regular pattern.
https://i.imgur.com/BqXKT06.gif

Of course you will not be able to "measure" that with just the few rolls of a single gaming session and we also don't know how changing dice (from D20 to D8 to D6 to D20...) affects the outcome. But even a small set of dice is affected by the same probabilities that only a large set will reveal (as in can be proven).

Look here: https://www.fantasygrounds.com/forums/showthread.php?64056-3D-dice-results-are-not-random&p=561255&viewfull=1#post561255

And here: https://www.fantasygrounds.com/forums/showthread.php?64056-3D-dice-results-are-not-random&p=561286&viewfull=1#post561286

There is more in the linked thread, which was closed in the end as too many forum regulars got offended by challenging their most beloved VTT and world-views (aka cannot grasp that uniform distribution = randomness).

Moon Wizard
August 28th, 2021, 09:55
Again, please keep your comments respectful; or I will edit/remove your posts. The links to the existing posts are sufficient.

Regards,
JPG

stephan_
August 28th, 2021, 13:08
For what it's worth, here are the totals of a PF2 levels 1-20 campaign (FG Classic, not enough data yet for FGU):

48908

amerigoV
August 28th, 2021, 13:27
Even if there is a bit of bias in some manner, its still fair since everyone (GM and players) has the same bias applied to them. The same cannot be said for player's dice in real life...

Weissrolf
August 28th, 2021, 15:33
There are 18.8% more #16 than #1 results (54863 vs. 46177).
Not the kind of bias I prefer for our rolls. That being said, since the rolls are biased by the 3D physics of dice rolls and the basic RNG generator used by Lua 5.1 can be different for different OS (Windows, MacOS, Linux) each player may indeed get their own bias.

Anyway, that old thread holds lots of information and polemic, so there is plenty to read on the subject.

Jiminimonka
August 28th, 2021, 15:48
Not the kind of bias I prefer for our rolls. That being said, since the rolls are biased by the 3D physics of dice rolls and the basic RNG generator used by Lua 5.1 can be different for different OS (Windows, MacOS, Linux) each player may indeed get their own bias.

Anyway, that old thread holds lots of information and polemic, so there is plenty to read on the subject.

:rolleyes:

Jiminimonka
August 28th, 2021, 15:50
So my players are ridiculously superstitious, and bizarrely sure that adding tech to games is going to be done "wrong". We got into FG because we needed to play after months apart. However, they're exhibiting what to me seems to be classic confirmation bias behaviour:
1) "The dice roller rolls way too many 1s to be really providing an honest roll!"
2) "Whenever the die teeters between two numbers before settling, it always comes down on the lower number!"
Can someone confirm, as I believe, that the system is a physics based roller using perfectly weighted isometric solids? Further, they've accused it of "always starting with the same number up" and "always applying identical force and direction to the dice".
I'm sure they'll be willing to claim there's even more hidden bias against them in the code, so a second ask:
Is there an extension that will log all die rolls? I just need something I can run through some excel number crunching and prove that the d20 is coming out to 10.5, the d4 is coming out to 2.5, and that I didn't choose this system because the dice roller is inherently biased against the players.
Sorry if this is so ridiculous it makes your eyes roll. These are engineers, bankers and lawyers. You'd figure they'd understand how confirmation bias works.

It is random enough - I rolled 3 or 4 1s in a row - no one complains when they get 4 20s in a row, you will notice. Don't get drawn into discussions about RNG (especially on the forums) :)

Mytherus
August 28th, 2021, 19:54
From all i read the dice physics are absolutely fine . We joke once in a while in my games if it seems someone keeps getting low rolls. But my players have a good bead on my vibe with my games...lets just have fun and be respectful to each other. If players in my games did start repeatedly whine or complain that FGUs dice roller was bias or bad id say "look cut it out it is what it is". If they disrupted the game enough id stay sending them DMs...if it. Kept going beyond that...id remove them from the game.