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View Full Version : The future of the RPG/CRPG/VTT market (was: Why no 3D?)



Frunobulax
February 3rd, 2021, 03:05
I wrote this in response to a comment LordEntrails made in the thread "Why No 3D", but decided it could be its own thread.


Technology development, and that is what we are talking about when talk about adding 3D to a VTT

Well... yes and no. It takes technology to do it, sure. But in this case it's not new technology that needs to be developed. The technology of "getting computers to draw and move around 3D objects" is pretty well completely done. There's essentially no more R&D that needs to be funded, at least not at the level we're discussing. No need to re-invent the wheel - that would be stupid and absurdly expensive. In this case it's not "how do we create this technology?" but rather "which one of the zillion packages and libraries and development environments do we choose?" Smiteworks chose Unity, which was a very, very wise choice. Now it's not "how do we write 3D stuff for FG?" it's more "How do we integrate Unity's 3D stuff with our existing code?" Still not a simple task, I imagine, but way less expensive in time and money than coming up with something new from scratch. It's leveraging technology that's already been developed.


So, if you want 3D in your VTT, then start spending your money accordingly. [...] what is spent for a AAA video game of $60-80 million USD. Yes that is right, one video game spends almost twice as much to develop as the entire RPG tabletop market earns in a year!

All of that is true, but you're looking at two different markets (RPGs and CRPGS [Computer-based RPGS]) and lumping them together. There is the "pen and paper, live, multiperson tabletop roleplaying gamers" who like gaming in groups in person and virtually through VTTs, and then there is the "non-tabletop RPG lovers" who buy Pathfinder: Kingmaker, Divinity, Pillars of Eternity, Baldur's Gate, etc. On the one hand, the whole market for the first group is what you said - minuscule, in the grand scheme of the entertainment industry. Those of us who have been involved since the very beginning in the 80's know that anyone who wants to make a living in the pen-and-paper RPG business is a masochist. There's never been any money in it, at least not if you want to buy a house, eat something other than Ramen and cheese sandwiches, sraise kids, etc. This market now, the computer-based VTT market, is somewhat better, clearly. It supports modest-sized companies like Smitewokrs and (I hope) provides a decent living for a handful of employees.

BUT... what I think you are overlooking is the reason that while the budget for an A-list CRPG can equal the whole size of the pen-and-paper inmdustry is this: how and why can they cost so much? Obviously it's because they make money for the publishers. If they didn't, who would spend that much making one? Which proves that the *RPG market is WAY bigger than the pen-and-paper or even VTT RPG market, that RPG fans are legion, but most of them either don't want to - or, more likely, have never been introduced to - realtime multiplayer RPGs at least not beyond an MMORPG. They haven't experienced it in a small-scale, turn-based setting with other humans, only pre-scripted AI stories. They don't get how fun this style of gaming can be. So, the conclusion I come to is this: if Pathfinder:Kingmaker can support a $60 million budget and make money, that means there's a lot of interest from people who like to sit at desktops and move little figures around, using abilities and spells and combat in a turn-based, small-group environment.

When I ask myself what I find so fun about the games i play on FG, I come to a few personal conclusions. I stopped playing MMORPGS because even though they can be fun, and they have awesome graphics, unless you're in an active guild they aren't very social, and the stories suck. Even in a guild, you just do the same thing over and over again. The world is static and never changes and when you kill some boss monster there is no real effect - it just resets for the next group. Not much fun. There's no depth to the stories, no character development. It's tedious and there is no sense of accomplishment for me. Honestly, which of us ever really bothers to follow the story and lore of an MMORPG? Sure, a few, but most just ignore the plot entirely and just want to Kill ten Rats.

Similarly, while I have loved pen-and-paper RPGs for my whole life, both technology and society have moved along. Thanks to things like FG, we are no longer limited in our gaming to people physically near us. I had to stop playing for a very long time for that reason, and I'm so happy technology has come along and solved that problem with VTTs. Sure, it's possible to imagine dragons and fireballs and spooky places, but it also sure is nice to be able to actually finally see them. Now that we have the ability and the technology, why not?

Call me a dreamer, but I see the continued development and advancement of tools like FG to have the potential to create a whole new market for games, the "small scale, human-GM-run, multiplayer CRPG". People love VTTS, and even though small, the industry is for once starting to grow out of its perceived "only geeks in basements" niche. People obviously are willing to pay $60 for big-budget CRPGs - when they are only ONE story, and that only, what, 80-100 hours of play? To me, Smitework's model of "sell the software at reasonable cost and make money on the DLC" is very smart, and if (theoretically) it could look as good as Pathfinder, and be constantly refreshed with new features, new models and effects, and new adventures, well - that sounds like a winning combination to me! Not just adventures but all kinds of extra digital things. Take a look at how much time and money people spend on purely cosmetic items for their characters in other games - MORPGs, yes, but also even in phone games and so on. Imagine showing up to a VTT game with =your own custome 3D model you bought of your favorite character? Or having one made for your current character with whatever position, equipment, and animations you want? An avatar, essentially. The sky is the limit here.

That's one reason I am so happy that there is a market for paid GMs out there, because - let's face it - a bad GM makes for a bad game, and skilled ones are worth paying. We pay all kinds of other creative people to make art and entertainment fun for us. All these things - detailed 3D VTTs, new content created by people all over the world and sold/licensed through a DLC mechanism, and an environment of both paid and free GMs, could really grow the industry rapidly. There could be a synergy between all the groups that raises the tide for everyone. Developers like Smiteworks handle the technical end and DLC (sharing profits with the creators); the skilled content creators can make new adventures, maps, models, and effects; the GMs can hone their craft and both create new adventures and run existing ones, getting reputation according to their skill; and of course the players can both have a blast and even contribute themselves if they want on a nonprofessional, community basis.

Imagine if you were playing something that looked like Pathfinder:Kingmaker and saw an ad for new content - "New! Adventure in The Jungles of Somewhere! Epic storyline, a new race with all new models for monsters and NPCs, new spell and ability effects! Now being run by leading GMs around the world! Why play WoW and kill the same boss for the hundredth time when you can make your own adventure with your friends? Buy now!"

Because, in the end, what is most valuable is new content. This way the VRPG (Virtual Roleplaying Game) market can have something no other entertainment medium can have - FRESH, NEW content every time, created by you in conjunction with your GM and other players. Each runthrough is a new story, unique to the people who are running it. It's NOT same-old, same-old like MMORPGs are. And fresh content is really where it's all at. With a real symbiotic ecosystem, creators could make a little more money (I still don't think anyone would retire to a private island LOL) and players can have a blast.

OK, so... wow, that got WAY longer than I intended. Guess I was on a roll. Sorry. But there was a lot to say. Please don't bother responding if you are just going to say how hard it all would be etc. I'm well aware that this is all castles in the air, daydreaming, whatever you want to call it. I know there would be hurdles. But as a general direction and goal, I think it's quite possible over time if everyone works together.

LordEntrails
February 3rd, 2021, 03:15
3D VTTs are sort of here. FG will get there. Maybe before any other major players given their acquisition of TTC (Carl).

I'm not in a rush to get there. I know what it's like to be on the bleeding edge of 3D software, I have no interest in living that again for my hobby time. But I expect others will :)

johnecc
February 3rd, 2021, 05:49
Actually, 3d vtt has been around for some time, just not turn based. Not sure if you were aware, but both the crpg’s Neverwinter Nights 1 & 2, both had dm clients, and the ability to create your own worlds/modules. Most people would use the software to create their own adventure modules that people could play as a regular game, but they each had the option to run as multiplayer, with someone acting as dm, even in the official campaign.

But those were considered secondary to the main crpg, by the developer. But a large fan community still maintains repositories of fan modules and addons.

kevininrussia
February 3rd, 2021, 06:39
When Covid happened, my old D&D group from when we were in middle school decided this would be a good time to get back into some D&D action. The contenders were Fantasy Grounds, and Neverwinter. I had Neverwinter and Fantasy Grounds on Steam (must have been on some sale because I don't even remember buying them).

Tried Neverwinter first as the 3d nature of it seemed like it would be cool. Setup the local server and loaded up a module. Nope, the players hated it. They wanted a top down board like we were playing it for real. So upgraded to Fantasy Grounds Unity and everybody loved it. I think the a top down 2d style is what makes it for our group. The lighting preview is great, and maybe in the future we can get animated textures like running water, burning camp fires, birds flying overhead. Making FGU more immersive yet keeping the tabletop feel is what I like and seems like the direction FGU going.

Frunobulax
February 3rd, 2021, 08:46
I know what it's like to be on the bleeding edge of 3D software, I have no interest in living that again for my hobby time. But I expect others will :)

Well. I'd hardly call little animated figures "the bleeding edge of 3d"! ;-)

Jiminimonka
February 3rd, 2021, 11:09
[B][I]Imagine if you were playing something that looked like Pathfinder:Kingmaker and saw an ad for new content - "New! Adventure in The Jungles of Somewhere! Epic storyline, a new race with all new models for monsters and NPCs, new spell and ability effects! Now being run by leading GMs around the world! Why play WoW and kill the same boss for the hundredth time when you can make your own adventure with your friends? Buy now!"


Sounds good!

Maybe us DMs can lure people in with 3d and then teach them 2 play on a 2d desktop..... :)

LordEntrails
February 3rd, 2021, 15:01
Well. I'd hardly call little animated figures "the bleeding edge of 3d"! ;-)
Not what I was referring to. I meant 3D solid parametric CAD in the 90s.

But the point is that 3D VTT is still new in itself. Yes it's been done in NWN and a few other places. And 3D modelling is not new, but for VTTs, 3D has yet to come to mainstream. Therefore it is still "beta" as a technology in the industry.

HywelPhillips
February 3rd, 2021, 15:48
Call me a dreamer, but I see the continued development and advancement of tools like FG to have the potential to create a whole new market for games, the "small scale, human-GM-run, multiplayer CRPG". People love VTTS, and even though small, the industry is for once starting to grow out of its perceived "only geeks in basements" niche. People obviously are willing to pay $60 for big-budget CRPGs - when they are only ONE story, and that only, what, 80-100 hours of play? To me, Smitework's model of "sell the software at reasonable cost and make money on the DLC" is very smart, and if (theoretically) it could look as good as Pathfinder, and be constantly refreshed with new features, new models and effects, and new adventures, well - that sounds like a winning combination to me! Not just adventures but all kinds of extra digital things. Take a look at how much time and money people spend on purely cosmetic items for their characters in other games - MORPGs, yes, but also even in phone games and so on. Imagine showing up to a VTT game with =your own custome 3D model you bought of your favorite character? Or having one made for your current character with whatever position, equipment, and animations you want? An avatar, essentially. The sky is the limit here.

That's one reason I am so happy that there is a market for paid GMs out there, because - let's face it - a bad GM makes for a bad game, and skilled ones are worth paying.

This is a nice dream, but I wonder if the numbers stack up. I'd like to think they might! But I don't think it is a super-strong business case.

The limiting factor to any small-scale human run multiplayer CRPG is the human running it. Part of the reason why computer RPGs can grow so big is precisely because of the limitation that everything is the same for everyone. It means that the manufacturer can produce content once and have it consumed an unlimited number of times. Literally a million people can play it. I think it is that single change that led to computer RPGs being much bigger business that GM-run ones.

One GM cannot run games for more than a handful of players. The sweet spot for traditional roleplaying is definitely 4-6 people. That GM cannot run it for a million people. So they can give a bespoke experience to (at most) about 60 people in a week, assuming a punishing schedule of running two games per day, five days a week, and full tables of six players in every game. The more players the GM handles, the less bespoke the experience can be. And the more it loses the appeal which makes it different from playing a computer RPG or MMORPG in the first place.

The default level of payment for paid RPGs at the moment seems to be around $15 per person per 3-4 hour session. This is unsustainably low. Even with a full schedule and full table at every one, the GM is only making $900 a week- topping out at $45,000 a year. That's turnover, not profit, and it's a high figure which few people will be making. I don't know about you but I definitely couldn't deliver a bespoke experience to ten groups a week for a year at the same level of quality I deliver to one or two groups a week right now even if I dropped all other commitments and made that a full time job. It's a sure road to burnout, sooner rather than later. Even if you're running them all through the same big WOTC adventure, you're going to start confusing groups (which happens in paid groups I've been in). Worse yet, you are very fragile to cancelations and groups needing to merge (another thing which seems to happen quite often in paid groups in my experience).

This is a job for someone, but it's not an industry. There are a few collectives organising play at this level and making a bit more money, but it doesn't seem to be awash with the funds needed for a big investment or persuading venture capital to back you. Maybe it is - Kickstarter's best category is apparently tabletop games, by a big margin. So maybe the right innovator producing 3D GM toolkits making it easy to deliver the 3D experience with the advantages of the bespoke experience might enable a market expansion. After all that's what VTT's have done already.

Who might organise all the resources needed to support an army of cottage-industry GM's? Right now it is WOTC and a few individual other products like Rise of the Drow, some of the Kobold Press stuff, Odyssey of the Dragonlords and so on. Where is the money going to come from to transition all this to a 3D virtual reality setting? Some of it will come from hobbyists doing it for fun, with a small number of companies supporting them like now. The cottage industry GM's can't do it, they need to be running games for paying customers. It's noticeable the more games a paid-GM runs, the more likely they are to be the big commercial WOTC ones. It's not quite to the point that you might as well just play World of Warcraft, but if you want to pay someone to play Rime of The Frostmaiden or Descent into Avernus, you're going to have a lot more luck than wanting someone to run an original homebrew or (say) Deadlands Weird West.

The only commercial GM I play with who seems to have run the numbers charges $40 per session. He runs one weekly campaign a day five days a week I think, and makes money running one-off and short-run games for family birthday parties and corporate clients. That's a more viable model but how big IS the market for games at $10 per player per hour compared with 60 cents per hour for a $60, 100 hour computer game? It is a nice end of the market to cater for (I have to say the players in the $40 games are awesome compared with the average pick-up game. Financial investment leads to invested players!) But even he only offers lightly-customised WOTC modules, and I suspect he has to weigh up purchases of stuff with "how many of my groups might use this?"

I've been running a playtest as a proof of concept for running a homebrew campaign as a commercial venture (I'm not charging for it yet). The answer is "it is too much work unless the investment is reusable". So I could run the game for multiple groups and recoup the investment that way, or use it as the playtest for releasing it as a commercial setting via FG and PDFs and the usual outlets. I'm not sure I could charge enough extra to run it to make it worth the extra work compared with starting with a big commercial module and customising it group by group if I wanted to make more money out of it. And that's with 2D assets. 3D will definitely make it more time intensive to develop.

Level design and monster design and the like are not just full-time jobs on computer game development- they are full time TEAMS. Cottage industry GMs cannot do that and have any time left over to run the game for paying customers. So we'll be back to commercial releases from WOTC et al, and is there the extra money to be made there for them putting all that effort into developing the 3D assets? (Which after all their traditional print book or PDF customers won't be able to use at all). Will they be able to charge enough to cover those costs? Will customers used to paying $50 for a book for a year's play pay ten times as much for the same thing in worse 3D than current computer games? Or will there be a huge new tranche of customers for whom neither 2D VTT play nor MMORPG nor traditional 3D computer games cut it? I'm afraid I think it's unlikely.

I think 3D for VTTs risks being like 3D for movies - an interesting gimmick, good from some WOW projects, but which doesn't leverage the advantage of the medium, and may well highlight a lot of its limitations.

Kickstarting now: Shard VTT, traditional 2D but with nice 5E-centric UI. $23,600 200% funded 22 days to go. Realm engine, 3D VTT, $7200 23% funded 10 days to go.

I just don't see the pent-up demand or the desire to pay a premium for 3D in VTTs right now.

Cheers, Hywel

HywelPhillips
February 3rd, 2021, 15:58
P.S. the one company that it strikes me might have enough 3D content to hand to try this is Games Workshop, since all their products start as 3D computer assets. But I'm pretty sure there is a lot more money in plastic figures and glossy books and licenced computer game properties than 3D VTT RPGs. After all, RPGs were too small a market for them to stay in originally.

Three of Swords
February 3rd, 2021, 18:03
It's obvious you are very interested in a 3D environment. Have you checked out Tabletop Simulator? I have not used it, but I do know some ppl use it to play D&D. Maybe it'll suit your needs. Available on Steam.

Jiminimonka
February 3rd, 2021, 18:12
You know Smiteworks got Carl as part of a buying up of a 3D tabletop kickstarter? It's on the cards (and Doug has already laid out the game plan for it in the Why No 3D thread this forked from).

Slighty off topic but just cos its FantasyGrounds and Maps - I just made a new map in FGU using only assets - no 40MB bitmap from Dungeondraft or whatever map software. So first off all the assets are at max resolution (some are 400dpi) but they still are tiny downloads for players. Second - it has moveable furniture (a barricade in a corridor), sliding secret doors (the secret door LOS is tied to the wall that is moveable). A corpse in a bed that I can remove once it attacks the players... No, there is no other VTT that can do that, and its just going to get better.

johnecc
February 3rd, 2021, 20:37
How did you do the moveable furniture, sliding door, etc. I am assuming you had them as seperate objects, with one hidden. Example, the sliding door, one door object in the closed position and a 2nd in the open position. Then when the player opens the door, you just hide the closed door, and show the open door.

Is that correct?

Jiminimonka
February 3rd, 2021, 20:42
How did you do the moveable furniture, sliding door, etc. I am assuming you had them as seperate objects, with one hidden. Example, the sliding door, one door object in the closed position and a 2nd in the open position. Then when the player opens the door, you just hide the closed door, and show the open door.

Is that correct?

Pretty much - they are all objects - drag the wall item that you used for the wall onto the map and fit it in the gap where the secret door fit. Also on non-painted layers you can draw the LOS directly onto them (the little wall icon appears next to them) so when you move the object the LOS moves with it - sliding door reveals room.....

Frunobulax
February 14th, 2021, 00:41
It's obvious you are very interested in a 3D environment. Have you checked out Tabletop Simulator? I have not used it, but I do know some ppl use it to play D&D. Maybe it'll suit your needs. Available on Steam.

Thanks. I actually am aware of it, but as much as I like 3D stuff, in the end it's the intelligence and rulesets that bring me to FG. Without all that automation it's back to poring over books and charts and I just don't want to go back to that.